Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Florida Predictions

First I predict high turnout..

Democrats: I think Hillary Clinton will take this state by 5-7% points over Obama with John Edwards in a distant third. Edwards has pretty much shunned the state opting for southeastern states that will give him a better chance. Clinton should have a more favorable voting margin among African-Americans in Florida then she did in South Carolina because more Florida voters are transplants from Northeast and have a much more favorable view of the Clinton family right now.

Republicans: I believe John McCain will earn a hard-fought victory over Mitt Romney, which could give him the bounce needed for Super Tuesday. Anything other than a second-place finish will spell the end for Rudy Giuliani while Mike Huckabee is focused on the southern states in Super Tuesday where he will have a good chance at ruffling some feathers.

Nothing is settled yet.

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